March Madness: Thursday's best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog pick and prediction

Ryan Dodson
Staff Writer

Many brackets were busted in the opening weekend of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. A total of 13 lower seeds moved on in the first 2 rounds of the tournament.

But there is still a lot of firepower still alive as all 4 top seeds and all 4 No. 2 seeds made it to the Sweet 16. We lost a couple of 3-seeds and 2 more 4-seeds, but we have just 1 double-digit seed remaining as 11th-ranked NC State has made a run.

Of the 4 games slated for Thursday, there is 1 matchup that sticks out as the best underdog play.

After looking at BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA Tournament odds and lines, I've come up with Thursday's best Sweet 16 underdog bet to cash in on among SportbookWire's expert college basketball picks and predictions.

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Illinois is No. 10 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, while Iowa State is No. 4.

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Thursday's NCAA Tournament underdog pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:04 a.m. ET.

ILLINOIS (+105) vs. Iowa State – 10:09 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV)

The No. 3 seed Fighting Illini (28-8) take on the 2nd-seeded Cyclones (29-7). Iowa State poses the 2nd-best defensive rating in the country at 92.4. But the Cyclones are going to have to be able to outscore what could be the player of the tournament thus far in Illini senior G Terrence Shannon Jr.

He has dropped 26 and 30 in the first 2 rounds, and sure, that was against double-digit seeds. He has posted 25+ points in 6 straight games and averaged 30.5 PPG in the process. He's the best player on the floor in this game. ISU will do what it can to limit him, but it won't be enough. If you're able to get in on his Over 21.5 points prop (-110), I would look to do that as well.

Illinois can score at each level, and if ISU can contain Shannon, the Illini have a stretch 4 in F Marcus Domask who can score inside and out. The Illini are 7th in the country with 41.0 rebounds per game. The only team that I see keeping the Illini from the Final Four is top-seeded UConn, and unfortunately for them, they could face the Huskies in the Elite 8.

BET ILLINOIS (+105) before the line potentially falls to +100 or -110 by tip-off.

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