Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds odds, picks and predictions
The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds open their seasons with the 1st game of a 3-game set Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Nationals vs. Redsodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Reds won 4-3 last season
The Nationals finished last season with a 71-91 record, good for last in the NL East. They finished 4 games behind the New York Mets and 33 behind the 1st-place Atlanta Braves. Washington had a 37-44 road record last year.
Cincinnati finished 3rd in the NL Central last season, just 1 game behind the Chicago Cubs. It was 82-80 on the season and 38-43 at home. The Reds were hit hard with injuries during training camp with the most notable being 2B Matt McLain, who tore his labrum and is expected to miss an extended period of time.
Nationals at Reds projected starters
RHP Josiah Gray vs. RHP Frankie Montas
Gray (8-13, 3.91 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.46 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 159 innings last season.
- 2023 road stats: 4-7, 2.97 ERA (100 IP, 33 ER) in 18 starts
- 2023 vs. Reds: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER (5 R), 8 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 1 start, a 9-2 home loss July 5
- Career vs. Reds: 1-1, 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER) in 2 starts
Montas (5-12, 4.05 ERA in 2022) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.25 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 144 1/3 IP with the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics in 2022 -- only pitched 1 1/3 innings in 2023 due to right shoulder surgery.
- 2022 home stats: 2-7, 3.11 ERA (89 2/3 IP, 31 ER) in 15 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 0-0, 33.75 ERA (1 1/3 IP, 5 ER) in 2 relief appearances -- last faced Washington in 2017
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Nationals at Reds odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Nationals +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Reds -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-155) | Reds -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Nationals at Reds picks and predictions
Prediction
Reds 5, Nationals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
There is minimal value on the home Reds (-155) to beat a Nationals team that struggled last season and has made minimal offseason improvements.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS -1.5 (+125).
Montaswill be the difference maker in this matchup. He is seeing his 1st action in a year and coming off shoulder surgery. Montas has displayed good control over his career and is looking to turn the page after his injury. While the Reds dealt with a difficult spring training, expect their bats to be hot in front of their home crowd.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (+100).
The Under is 7-3 between these teams dating back to Aug. 2022. In last season's series, the Under went 2-5. Both teams are navigating difficulties, but the Nationals will make the difference here. Both teams finished with a below-.500 Over record last season.
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